As of 15:00 Eastern Time on July 29, 2025, Solana was trading at $165.37 against the US dollar (solana price usd), with a cumulative increase of 12.3% during the week, breaking through the resistance level of $158 on the 50-day moving average. Bloomberg Terminal data shows that the average daily trading volume over the past five days reached 4.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 80% compared to the previous week. The buying was concentrated in the early trading session of New York, accounting for 63% of the total trading volume for the day. This increase was mainly driven by the fact that the TVL (Total Locked Value) of the Solana ecosystem exceeded 4 billion US dollars. In July, the DeFi protocol Kamino Finance added 780 million US dollars in deposits ina single week, with an annualized yield of 34%, triggering a capital siphon effect.
Technical indicators show a significant increase in volatility. The Bollinger band width has expanded from ±8% in the previous week to ±15%, and the implied volatility index has risen to 75%, reflecting an improved expectation of price amplitude in the options market. Historical data analysis shows that when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks through the overbought threshold of 70 (currently 73), the probability of a short-term pullback reaches 68%. For instance, in November 2024, the price of SOL dropped by 23% within 48 hours after touching $190. However, the on-chain share distribution shows that there are stop-loss sell orders worth $930 million in the $167- $170 range, which constitutes a key resistance level.
In te
rms of ecological development, the TPS (Transactions per Second) of the Solana network has remained stable at 6,500 transactions, which is 230% faster than the Ethereum L2 solution, and the median transaction cost per transaction is only $0.00025. The weekly trading volume of the NFT marketplace Magic Eden soared by 290% to $38 million, among which the sales of items from the Solana chain game “Aurory” accounted for 41%. On July 27th, the Solana Foundation announced an expansion of its cooperation with Visa, reducing the latency of its payment and settlement network from 45 minutes to 7 seconds, directly stimulating an increase of 120 million US dollars in institutional capital inflows in a single day.
The quantitative model of market sentiment shows that the mention frequency of the social media keyword “buy sol” increased by 220% week-on-week, but the short position simultaneously rose to 38% of the open futures contracts. Derivatives data shows that options worth 1.15 billion US dollars will expire on August 1st, with strike prices concentrated at 160 US dollars (accounting for 42%), which may trigger a price squeeze. Referring to a similar situation in May 2024, when the Gamma squeeze effect caused SOL to soar by 31% 72 hours before its expiration date.
Macroeconomic risks need to be watched out for. Before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, the beta coefficient of cryptocurrencies rose to 2.8, meaning that if the S&P 500 index of the US stock market drops by 1%, SOL may follow suit and fall by 2.8%. However, in terms of technological breakthroughs, the Firedancer client testnet has processed 2 billion transactions without any issues. It is expected that the launch in Q4 2025 will increase the network capacity to 120,000 transactions per second. According to Pantera Capital’s prediction, the infrastructure upgrade may enable SOL to challenge the historical high of $250 before the end of the year. However, it is recommended that investors control the position of a single currency to no more than 15% of the investment portfolio to cope with the possible ±25% fluctuation risk.